Bessent says “no sanctions were lifted.” That's true of the old ones. The new ones were waived two days before they took effect.
Europe's Russian energy bill is real, but China, India and Turkey pay Russia more, and the waiver spares them too, with no end date.
On Meet the Press, the Treasury secretary said only the diesel embargo had been lifted and that the law gives Trump Not in the law. A waiver needs only a written certification; 60 days is the administration's own timetable (Rubio). The order sets no end date. Order sec. 4(d); Bloomberg via the Straits Times. Then he turned to Europe: Checks out: urgewald's count from Kpler ship-tracking, Jan.–June 2026. The other four went to China. urgewald; Reuters; Kyiv Independent that left Russia's Yamal LNG plant from January to June went to European ports, he said, for “Higher than urgewald's Kpler-based estimate: €5.96 billion paid by the EU for the same cargoes. urgewald.”
FullWhy it mattersWhy is Treasury making this case?
This is the administration's case for shelving the Russia law: Europe still buys Russian energy, so why should the U.S. carry the cost alone? It also turns a sanctions law into a decision Trump can make, or not, on his own clock.
FullThe catchWhat doesn't add up in his numbers?
His “60 days to assess” has no deadline behind it: the order sets no end date and requires no decision. His cargo count matches the ship-tracking data; his dollar figure is higher than the €5.96 billion the campaign group urgewald estimated from Kpler data.
- Oct. 9Diesel ban lifted
- Oct. 16Order waives the new law
- Oct. 18New sanctions were due
- AfterNo end date in the order
- Sanctions already in forceImposed by earlier executive ordersStill onUntouched by Friday's order
- The Graham law's new sanctions and tariffs500% on Russian goods; 100% on the top five buyers of Russian oil and gasWaived Oct. 16Lasts until the president or secretary of state decides otherwise
- The ban on Russian diesel importsTreasury General License 135Lifted Oct. 9Through April 7, 2027
Bessent's Europe point: every cargo that left Russia's Yamal LNG plant, Jan.–June 2026
Order: White House executive order, Oct. 16, secs. 2 and 4. Diesel license: GL 135 as quoted via Newsweek. Bessent's words: NBC transcript. Yamal cargoes, Jan.–June 2026: urgewald analysis of Kpler data, via Reuters and the Kyiv Independent. The four non-European cargoes went to China.
FullTwo real argumentsIs Europe's buying a reason for the U.S. to wait? 8 claims checked
How we tag claims
Tags rate the claim in each point, checked against primary data. Checks out Partly Overstated Spin
Bessent's case, at its strongest
Europe is still funding Moscow. The EU paid Russia €17.1 billion (about $19 billion) for oil and gas in 2025, five times what the U.S. paid for all Russian goods. Hungary and Slovakia even raised their Russian pipeline crude by 8%.
Checks outBessent's “Europe funds the war”The money is real, and Europe's oil and gas bill alone dwarfs total U.S. purchases.
CREA 2025 EU import tally; U.S. Census; ECB 2025 exchange rate; our math
The U.S. bought just $3.8 billion of Russian goods in 2025, nearly half of it ($1.8 billion) fertilizer. The EU bought $31.5 billion (€27.9 billion), about eight times as much.
- U.S.
$3.8B - EU$31.5B
Goods imports from Russia, 2025, to scale. Dark part of the U.S. bar: fertilizer, $1.8B. OverstatedBessent's “more than ten times”His $4 billion and $1.8 billion match the data. The real gap is about 8 to 1.
U.S. Census; UN Comtrade (fertilizer, HS 31); European Commission (Eurostat data); ECB rate
- U.S.
Britain carved out an exception first. Since May 20, 2026, it has allowed imports of diesel and jet fuel refined abroad from Russian crude.
Checks outBessent's Britain exampleThat's the license text. It covers only those two fuels and expires Jan. 1, 2027.
GOV.UK General Trade Licence GBSAN0004
The waiver is legal. Congress wrote in the power: the president can waive any of the law's sanctions or tariffs by certifying in writing that it's in the national interest, and Treasury keeps its power to issue licenses like the diesel one.
Checks out“It's within the law”That's secs. 115 and 114(h). We couldn't confirm the certification has been sent to Congress.
Graham law, secs. 114(h) and 115, Public Law 119-111
The case against, at its strongest
Every other exception or ban here has an end date. The U.S. diesel license ends April 7, 2027, Britain's on Jan. 1, and the EU's ban on Russian LNG starts in 2027. Trump's waiver of the new law has no end date.
- UK diesel and jet fuel licenseJan. 1
- EU ban on Russian LNGStart of 2027
- U.S. diesel licenseApr. 7
- EU ban on pipeline gasAutumn ’27
- U.S. waiver of the Graham lawNo end date
TodayJan. ’27July ’27Jan. ’28Bars run from today to each end date, to scale. Checks out“No end date”All three dates are in the official texts. The order waives the law until the president or secretary of state decides otherwise.
OFAC General License 135; GOV.UK; Council of the EU; executive order, sec. 4(d)
There is no 60-day clock in the law. Bessent said it gives the president “60 days to assess.” A waiver needs only a written certification and a report. Rubio's “up to 60 days” is the administration's own timetable.
SpinBessent's “60 days to assess”The law's only 60-day period is for Congress to review an end to sanctions filed in summer.
Graham law, secs. 115 and 117(b); Bloomberg (Rubio)
Europe is cutting back, and the law aims elsewhere. The EU's Russian oil and gas bill fell 31% in a year, to €17.1 billion. The law's tariff targets Russia's biggest buyers, and in the war's third year China, India and Turkey each paid more than Europe. The waiver spared them too.
- China€78B
- India€49B
- Turkey€34B
- EU€21.9B
What each paid Russia for fossil fuels, Feb. 2024–Feb. 2025, to scale. Checks outWho the tariff targetsSec. 113 hits the top five buyers of Russian oil or gas. CREA: €24.8B (2024) to €17.1B (2025).
Graham law, sec. 113; CREA 2025 tally and third-year report
Pointing at Europe doesn't answer NBC's Kristen Welker: what has Putin done to earn relief? To end these sanctions for good, the law requires a peace deal Ukraine accepts and an end to hostilities.
Checks outThe law's bar for reliefSec. 117 sets that bar for ending sanctions. A sec. 115 waiver legally skips it.
Graham law, sec. 117(a); NBC transcript
Bessent is right that no sanctions already in force were lifted, apart from the diesel ban on Oct. 9. That's a narrow defense. The Graham law passed to add pressure on Moscow, and Friday's order waived almost all of it Order signed Fri., Oct. 16; the law's sanctions and tariffs were due Sun., Oct. 18. White House order; NBC. His Europe point is real money: the EU paid Russia EU imports of Russian oil and gas in 2025, about $19 billion: five times everything the U.S. bought from Russia. CREA 2025 EU import tally; U.S. Census; ECB rate for oil and gas last year. But Europe has set an end date for Russian gas. The biggest buyers are China, India and Turkey, which paid Russia far more than the EU did, and Trump's waiver spares them too, with no end date.
FullGo deeperYamal, Britain's waiver, his ask of Europe, the 60 days
- Where Yamal's gas lands. France, Belgium and Spain were the largest destinations, urgewald found. Bessent also named the Netherlands. Source: urgewald release; transcript.
- Britain's waiver. A U.K. general trade license has allowed imports of diesel and jet fuel refined from Russian crude in third countries since May 20. It expires Jan. 1, 2027. Source: General Trade Licence GBSAN0004 (GOV.UK); Reuters, May 19.
- His ask of Europe. Bessent said he asked European allies in the spring to join secondary tariffs on China and India. “They refused.” Source: Meet the Press transcript, Oct. 18. His account.
- A Republican defense. Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said a 2022 law he backed still bars Russian oil imports into the U.S. “until there is peace.” Source: Meet the Press transcript.
- The 60 days. Bessent said the law gives the president 60 days to assess. Rubio said Saturday the administration would take up to 60 days. The order itself sets no end date. Source: Transcript; Bloomberg via the Straits Times; executive order, sec. 4(d).
Still open: What Trump decides when the review Bessent described ends. The order doesn't require one.
SourcesSources (11)Transcript, the order, ship-tracking, licenses
Or open just one