Political GuyentistLab · Mon., Oct. 19, 2026

Monday, Oct. 19, 2026

4 stories · 4 quick bites · 15 days to Election Day · Updated 11 p.m. CT Sunday

  1. 01Russia sanctionsBessent: “No sanctions were lifted.” The new ones were waived before they started
  2. 02Ukraine warZelensky says Washington ordered the Starlink cap; Rubio says nobody did
  3. 03MidtermsNBC poll: Trump at 34%; his GOP support holds with MAGA, slips with traditional Republicans
  4. 04EconomyBessent blames an “energy shock.” The data agree, but not on core inflation or rent
  5. +Quick bitesWarnock on Trump, Texas ad money, a refinery spat, Zelensky's front-line claim
01Russia sanctions

Bessent says “no sanctions were lifted.” That's true of the old ones. The new ones were waived two days before they took effect.

On Meet the Press, the Treasury secretary said only the diesel embargo had been lifted and that the law gives Trump 60 days to assess. Then he turned to Europe: 136 of the 140 cargoes that left Russia's Yamal LNG plant from January to June went to European ports, he said, for “over $8 billion.”

Why it matters

This is the administration's case for shelving the Russia law: Europe still buys Russian energy, so why should the U.S. carry the cost alone? It also turns a sanctions law into a decision Trump can make, or not, on his own clock.

The catch

His “60 days to assess” has no deadline behind it: the order sets no end date and requires no decision. His cargo count matches the ship-tracking data; his dollar figure is higher than the €5.96 billion the campaign group urgewald estimated from Kpler data.

Status
What Friday's order switched off, and what it didn't
  1. Oct. 9Diesel ban lifted
  2. Oct. 16Order waives the new law
  3. Oct. 18New sanctions were due
  4. AfterNo end date in the order
  1. Sanctions already in forceImposed by earlier executive ordersStill onUntouched by Friday's order
  2. The Graham law's new sanctions and tariffs500% on Russian goods; 100% on the top five buyers of Russian oil and gasWaived Oct. 16Lasts until the president or secretary of state decides otherwise
  3. The ban on Russian diesel importsTreasury General License 135Lifted Oct. 9Through April 7, 2027

Bessent's Europe point: every cargo that left Russia's Yamal LNG plant, Jan.–June 2026

136 to European ports4 to China

Order: White House executive order, Oct. 16, secs. 2 and 4. Diesel license: GL 135 as quoted via Newsweek. Bessent's words: NBC transcript. Yamal cargoes, Jan.–June 2026: urgewald analysis of Kpler data, via Reuters and the Kyiv Independent. The four non-European cargoes went to China.

Two real argumentsIs Europe's Russian energy buying a good reason for the U.S. to hold off on sanctions?

Tags rate the claim in each point, checked against primary data. Checks out Partly Overstated Spin

Bessent's case, at its strongest

  • Europe is still funding Moscow. The EU paid Russia €17.1 billion (about $19 billion) for oil and gas in 2025, five times what the U.S. paid for all Russian goods. Hungary and Slovakia even raised their Russian pipeline crude by 8%.

    Checks outBessent's “Europe funds the war”The money is real, and Europe's oil and gas bill alone dwarfs total U.S. purchases.

    CREA 2025 EU import tally; U.S. Census; ECB 2025 exchange rate; our math

  • The U.S. bought just $3.8 billion of Russian goods in 2025, nearly half of it ($1.8 billion) fertilizer. The EU bought $31.5 billion (€27.9 billion), about eight times as much.

    • U.S.$3.8B
    • EU$31.5B
    Goods imports from Russia, 2025, to scale. Dark part of the U.S. bar: fertilizer, $1.8B.

    OverstatedBessent's “more than ten times”His $4 billion and $1.8 billion match the data. The real gap is about 8 to 1.

    U.S. Census; UN Comtrade (fertilizer, HS 31); European Commission (Eurostat data); ECB rate

  • Britain carved out an exception first. Since May 20, 2026, it has allowed imports of diesel and jet fuel refined abroad from Russian crude.

    Checks outBessent's Britain exampleThat's the license text. It covers only those two fuels and expires Jan. 1, 2027.

    GOV.UK General Trade Licence GBSAN0004

  • The waiver is legal. Congress wrote in the power: the president can waive any of the law's sanctions or tariffs by certifying in writing that it's in the national interest, and Treasury keeps its power to issue licenses like the diesel one.

    Checks out“It's within the law”That's secs. 115 and 114(h). We couldn't confirm the certification has been sent to Congress.

    Graham law, secs. 114(h) and 115, Public Law 119-111

The case against, at its strongest

  • Every other exception or ban here has an end date. The U.S. diesel license ends April 7, 2027, Britain's on Jan. 1, and the EU's ban on Russian LNG starts in 2027. Trump's waiver of the new law has no end date.

    • UK diesel and jet fuel licenseJan. 1
    • EU ban on Russian LNGStart of 2027
    • U.S. diesel licenseApr. 7
    • EU ban on pipeline gasAutumn ’27
    • U.S. waiver of the Graham lawNo end date
    TodayJan. ’27July ’27Jan. ’28
    Bars run from today to each end date, to scale.

    Checks out“No end date”All three dates are in the official texts. The order waives the law until the president or secretary of state decides otherwise.

    OFAC General License 135; GOV.UK; Council of the EU; executive order, sec. 4(d)

  • There is no 60-day clock in the law. Bessent said it gives the president “60 days to assess.” A waiver needs only a written certification and a report. Rubio's “up to 60 days” is the administration's own timetable.

    SpinBessent's “60 days to assess”The law's only 60-day period is for Congress to review an end to sanctions filed in summer.

    Graham law, secs. 115 and 117(b); Bloomberg (Rubio)

  • Europe is cutting back, and the law aims elsewhere. The EU's Russian oil and gas bill fell 31% in a year, to €17.1 billion. The law's tariff targets Russia's biggest buyers, and in the war's third year China, India and Turkey each paid more than Europe. The waiver spared them too.

    • China€78B
    • India€49B
    • Turkey€34B
    • EU€21.9B
    What each paid Russia for fossil fuels, Feb. 2024–Feb. 2025, to scale.

    Checks outWho the tariff targetsSec. 113 hits the top five buyers of Russian oil or gas. CREA: €24.8B (2024) to €17.1B (2025).

    Graham law, sec. 113; CREA 2025 tally and third-year report

  • Pointing at Europe doesn't answer NBC's Kristen Welker: what has Putin done to earn relief? To end these sanctions for good, the law requires a peace deal Ukraine accepts and an end to hostilities.

    Checks outThe law's bar for reliefSec. 117 sets that bar for ending sanctions. A sec. 115 waiver legally skips it.

    Graham law, sec. 117(a); NBC transcript

Go deeperWhere Yamal's gas lands · Britain's waiver · His ask of Europe · A Republican defense · The 60 days
  • Where Yamal's gas lands. France, Belgium and Spain were the largest destinations, urgewald found. Bessent also named the Netherlands. Source: urgewald release; transcript.
  • Britain's waiver. A U.K. general trade license has allowed imports of diesel and jet fuel refined from Russian crude in third countries since May 20. It expires Jan. 1, 2027. Source: General Trade Licence GBSAN0004 (GOV.UK); Reuters, May 19.
  • His ask of Europe. Bessent said he asked European allies in the spring to join secondary tariffs on China and India. “They refused.” Source: Meet the Press transcript, Oct. 18. His account.
  • A Republican defense. Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said a 2022 law he backed still bars Russian oil imports into the U.S. “until there is peace.” Source: Meet the Press transcript.
  • The 60 days. Bessent said the law gives the president 60 days to assess. Rubio said Saturday the administration would take up to 60 days. The order itself sets no end date. Source: Transcript; Bloomberg via the Straits Times; executive order, sec. 4(d).

Still open: What Trump decides when the review Bessent described ends. The order doesn't require one.

The take

Bessent is right that no sanctions already in force were lifted, apart from the diesel ban on Oct. 9. That's a narrow defense. The Graham law passed to add pressure on Moscow, and Friday's order waived almost all of it two days before it took effect. His Europe point is real money: the EU paid Russia €17.1 billion for oil and gas last year. But Europe has set an end date for Russian gas. The biggest buyers are China, India and Turkey, which paid Russia far more than the EU did, and Trump's waiver spares them too, with no end date.

Sources Meet the Press transcript · Osint613 on X (clip) · urgewald · Kyiv Independent (Yamal) · Reuters via MarketScreener · GOV.UK (GBSAN0004) · Reuters (U.K. waiver) · White House (order) · Newsweek (GL 135) · Straits Times on X (Rubio) · Council of the EU (gas ban)

02Ukraine war

Zelensky says Washington ordered the cap on Ukraine's Starlink. Rubio says nobody did, and that “it sort of happened.”

On Meet the Press, Zelensky said Ukraine's terminals still cut out above 161 km/h (100 mph), and that U.S. warnings of Russian ballistic-missile launches stopped for three days before resuming. Musk, Trump and Rubio each say it wasn't them.

Why it matters

Zelensky says the cap rules out some of the interceptor drones Ukraine sends after Russia's jet-powered Shaheds. Sources told RFE/RL that Ukraine needs at least 450 km/h, nearly three times the cap. Whoever controls that setting controls part of Ukraine's air defense.

The catch

Every account points somewhere else. Musk says the military and the president set such limits. The Telegraph's sources say Musk proposed the cap and, in one source's telling, Trump agreed. Reuters' officials say the order came from inside the White House. Trump says it wasn't him or Musk. Rubio says nobody ordered it and service is restored. Zelensky says it's still capped.

To scale
161 km/h is a cap, not a glitch: where Ukraine's link holds and where it drops
Link holdsSome units report drops (110–120)Cuts out above 161, Kyiv saysNo reported tests at these speeds

Speeds in km/h, to scale (100 mph ≈ 161 km/h). 161: Zelensky, Oct. 17 and on NBC. 180: Zelensky, on Starlink-equipped cars sent into the EU. 110–120: 7th Rapid Response Corps, via Reuters/DW and Fortune. 450: sources to RFE/RL's Alex Raufoglu, via NOEL Reports. Kyiv says the link cuts out at any speed above 161; the hatching stops at 180, the highest speed anyone has reported testing, and nothing faster has been reported either way.

Timeline
Who said what, Oct. 10–18 · 13 entries; red flags mark accounts that contradict each other

Starlink is SpaceX's commercial service. Starshield is the military version, which Musk says the U.S. government owns and controls. Tap any entry for the exact words and the source. Times are Central.

UkraineMuskTrump administrationReportingCongress
  1. Oct. 104:27 p.m.1Elon Musk“Zelensky has gone too far,” replying to Trump on Ukraine's refinery strikes.
    Trump, in the clip Musk replied to: “We told Zelensky, ‘You can do whatever you want to Russia, but don't hit the refineries’ … He better damn well stop.” Musk: “Zelensky has gone too far”

    Source: @elonmusk on X, reply to @RapidResponse47

  2. Oct. 14overnight2Ukraine's front lineDrones and terminals moving faster than 100 mph (160 km/h) start losing their link.

    Presidential adviser Serhii Beskrestnov reported it. One corps said drops began at 110–120 km/h.

    Source: Beskrestnov via AP and Fortune; 7th Rapid Response Corps via Fortune

  3. Oct. 141:06 p.m.3Mykhailo Fedorov, UkraineSays Starlink is coming back for terminals moving up to 160 km/h, thanks Musk, and asks him to lift Starshield's limit.
    “Starlink connectivity at speeds of up to 160 km/h is being restored. Removing Starshield's speed limit entirely is now critical for Ukraine's defense. Thank you, @elonmusk.”

    Source: @FedorovMykhailo on X

  4. Oct. 142:00 p.m.4Elon MuskSays the U.S. military and the president decide Starshield limits. Doesn't say who set this one.Conflicts with 7
    “Starshield systems are owned and controlled by the US government. Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS.”

    It's his only post about the cap we found. He doesn't say whether he had a role.

    Source: @elonmusk on X, reply to Fedorov

  5. Oct. 149:23 p.m.5Elon Musk“Time for Zelensky to go.”
    “And so the slaughter continues … Time for Zelensky to go”

    Quoting a post claiming Zelensky won't end the war for fear of prosecution.

    Source: @elonmusk on X

  6. Oct. 156ReutersTwo U.S. officials and a Western official: the order to slow Ukraine's Starshield came from inside the White House.Conflicts with 8, 11

    They didn't say who gave it. A senior U.S. official denied that Trump asked for it.

    Source: Reuters, via the Kyiv Independent and Fortune

  7. Oct. 1612:59 p.m.7The TelegraphReports that Musk pitched the cap to Trump, and one source says Trump “agreed.”Conflicts with 4, 8, 9
    “Elon Musk approached Donald Trump with the idea of slowing down Starlink in Ukraine … according to four sources familiar with the discussions.” A source: “He tweeted out that he was innocent and that it was the US administration that did it. The reality is that they were both in it.”

    Sourcing: four unnamed sources, a “senior source,” a high-ranking European official and two Ukrainian sources. None is identified as American, and only one says Trump agreed. It says the Pentagon carried it out. Musk hasn't responded on X.

    Source: The Telegraph (Joe Barnes), Oct. 16

  8. Oct. 16evening8President Trump“It wasn't me. And I don't think it was Elon.”Conflicts with 6, 7, 10
    “Well, I don't know if it was anybody, because it wasn't me. And I don't think it was Elon.”

    He added that, from what he understood, Starlink is “the same as it's always been.”

    Source: Real America's Voice via LIGA.net; CBS via Fortune

  9. Oct. 179AxiosA White House official calls the Telegraph story “totally false.” A Ukrainian official says each side blames the other.Conflicts with 7
    White House official: “This is totally false. As President Trump said, we didn't slow down Starlink at all.” Ukrainian official: “SpaceX as a company tells us it is a technical problem. But our contacts in the company say it is coming from the White House. When we ask the White House, they say it is Elon.”

    Axios also quoted a source saying Trump didn't push back on Musk's idea.

    Source: Axios, Oct. 17

  10. Oct. 1710ZelenskyThe cap is 161 km/h inside Ukraine. Terminals tested at 180 km/h in the EU stayed connected.Conflicts with 8, 11
    “The restrictions operate on the territory of Ukraine and do not operate on the territory of EU countries.”

    Source: Zelensky, via Fortune and Interfax-Ukraine

  11. Oct. 17evening11Marco Rubio“Nobody ordered that Starlink speed to be slowed down. It sort of happened.” Says it's been restored, and that Ukraine doesn't have Starshield.Conflicts with 6, 10, 12
    “It wasn't deliberate. We have nothing to do with that. I don't- the United States, nobody ordered that Starlink speed to be slowed down. It sort of happened, but my understanding is it's been restored.”

    On Starshield: Musk and Fedorov both discussed its Starshield limit on Oct. 14, and a 2024 Pentagon contract put 3,000 Ukrainian terminals on Starshield (Bloomberg). Whether that contract is still running hasn't been published.

    Source: State Department transcript, remarks before leaving for Uzbekistan

  12. Oct. 1812Zelensky, on Meet the Press“The message from American government,” and “technically SpaceX did it.” Still capped at 161.Conflicts with 11
    “Of course the message came from government. I don't know from whom, what cabinet … it was the message from American government to limit this speed, and technically SpaceX did it.”

    He also said U.S. warnings of Russian ballistic-missile launches stopped for three days, then resumed. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, on the same show, called the charge “very reckless.”

    Source: NBC transcript

  13. Oct. 1813Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio)Is “it sort of happened” enough? “Absolutely not.” Calls for a congressional investigation.
    “There needs to be an investigation, there needs to be a congressional investigation … lives are at risk, and lives are lost over these things.”

    Bipartisan senators asked the Pentagon to investigate on Oct. 15. No investigation has been announced.

    Source: Face the Nation (CBS); the Guardian, citing the NYT

Times Central. Musk's X posts were checked one by one from Oct. 16, 12:30 p.m. through Oct. 19, 2:15 a.m., and by keyword through Oct. 19 evening: no response to the Telegraph. Not included: claims of drops at 60–70 km/h (unnamed reports) and any SpaceX or Pentagon explanation (none published).

Go deeperA Republican wants answers · The intel pause · Does Ukraine have Starshield? · Senators' letter · Still talking
  • A Republican wants answers. Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), asked on Face the Nation whether “it sort of happened” was enough: “Absolutely not.” He called for a congressional investigation. Source: Face the Nation on X, Oct. 18.
  • The intel pause. Zelensky said Ukraine didn't get U.S. warnings of Russian ballistic-missile launches for three days. He thanked Washington for restoring it. Source: Reuters via X; the Guardian.
  • Does Ukraine have Starshield? Rubio says no. A Pentagon contract in 2024 put 3,000 of Ukraine's terminals on it, running to April 2025. Whether it's been renewed hasn't been published. Source: Bloomberg, Dec. 6, 2024; Space Force via Express-News; Rubio transcript.
  • Senators' letter. A bipartisan group of senators asked the Pentagon on Oct. 15 to investigate whether satellite and intelligence services were deliberately restricted. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) later asked for an inspector general inquiry. Source: The Guardian, citing the NYT; Fortune.
  • Still talking. Zelensky said he spoke Sunday with Witkoff and Kushner, Trump's envoys. Source: @ZelenskyyUa, Oct. 18.

Still open: Who set the cap, and whether Congress opens the investigation Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) is asking for.

The take

A cap that kicks in at almost exactly 100 mph, and by Kyiv's tests only inside Ukraine's borders, didn't “sort of happen.” A round-number speed limit fenced to one country is a setting someone writes and someone approves. It showed up overnight, while the White House was pressing Kyiv to stop hitting Russian refineries. And if nobody ordered it, nobody has explained why it was still on four days later, by Zelensky's account. The odds that it happened with no one at the White House or SpaceX deciding it are close to nil. The real question is who. Reuters' officials point to the White House, and the Telegraph's sources say Musk pitched it and Trump agreed. Those accounts can both be true. Both rest on unnamed sources, and Musk hasn't answered the Telegraph.

Sources Meet the Press transcript · War Translated on X · Interfax-Ukraine · DW · NOEL Reports on X (Reuters) · NOEL Reports on X (450 km/h) · ChrisO on X (Rubio transcript) · Face the Nation on X (Turner) · The Guardian · Zelensky on X · The Telegraph (Oct. 16) · Axios (Oct. 17) · Musk on X (Oct. 10) · Fortune · Kyiv Independent (Reuters report) · Musk on X (Oct. 14) · Fedorov on X · Musk on X (“Time for Zelensky to go”) · LIGA.net (Trump) · Bloomberg (2024 Starshield contract)

03Midterms

Trump's approval among adults fell to 34% in NBC's poll, a second-term low. Inside his party, the slide is among Republicans who don't call themselves MAGA.

The NBC News Decision Desk poll of 19,135 adults found 71% saying the country is on the wrong track, the most of Trump's second term. Registered voters prefer Democrats to control Congress, 55% to 45%.

Why it matters

Traditional Republicans are now the bigger group: 56% of Republicans in the poll call themselves that, Steve Kornacki said, after a MAGA majority in 2025. NBC says that wing drove the drop in Trump's Republican approval to 76%. Independents are at 21%, so Republicans defending both chambers can't lose their own voters too.

The catch

It's one online poll of all adults, a wider net than likely voters. On the same show, Lanhee Chen recalled that NBC polling two years ago had Harris up five points in late September.

Chart
Republicans in NBC's poll, sized by group and by how many approve of Trump · Groups as Kornacki described them; MAGA share is the remainder, our math

Width = size of the group · height = share approving · area = people

The gap in one number: about 21 of every 100 Republicans are traditional Republicans who disapprove, against about 3 among MAGA Republicans.

Width: share of Republicans who call themselves each (56% traditional, per Kornacki; MAGA = the other 44%, our math). Height: Trump approval within each group (63% and 93%), on-air figures from Kornacki. Areas are our math: 0.56 × 63 ≈ 35 and 0.44 × 93 ≈ 41 of every 100 Republicans approve; together about 76, matching the poll's 76% among Republican adults. Poll: NBC News Decision Desk/SurveyMonkey, online, Sept. 28–Oct. 12, 19,135 adults, ±2.6 points for all adults; the Republican subgroups are smaller, so their margins are wider (not published).

Go deeperBy issue · Wallets · The $5,000 checks · Groups Trump won · Nobody's winning
  • By issue. Among adults, Trump's approval is 27% on the cost of living, 29% on the Iran war, 33% on AI and 43% on border security and immigration, his best. Source: NBC News poll story.
  • Wallets. 44% say they're worse off than a year ago and 18% better. Among independents, 53% say worse, Kornacki said. Source: Poll story; Meet the Press.
  • The $5,000 checks. Only 14% expect to get the payment Trump has promised if Republicans keep Congress. Even among Republicans it's 28%. Source: Sahil Kapur on X, from the poll.
  • Groups Trump won. His approval is 28% among men under 30, a group he won by a point in 2024, and 31% among Latinos. Source: Poll story; 2024 margin per exit polls, as NBC reports.
  • Nobody's winning. Democrats are viewed favorably by 43% and Republicans by 37%. 52% call this administration more corrupt than its predecessors. Source: Poll story.

Still open: Whether other polls find the same split inside the GOP, and whether it shows up in early-vote turnout.

The take

Trump's Republican support is splitting along the line Kornacki drew: “The MAGA number is not moving that much. This number is.” The moving number belongs to traditional Republicans, and 56% of Republicans in NBC's poll call themselves that. Senate Republicans in close states need them. Expect more of those candidates to break with Trump where that wing is softest. Russia is an early test: Iowa's Ashley Hinson, in a Toss Up Senate race, said in a Meet the Press clip, “I don't think we need to be making a deal with Russia.”

Sources NBC News (poll) · Meet the Press transcript · Sahil Kapur on X · Sahil Kapur on X ($5,000)

04Economy

Bessent blamed inflation on an “energy shock.” The data back that, but not his claims that core prices fell four months straight and rents are down.

Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3% when Trump took office. Energy's annual inflation rate went from 0.5% in February, when the Iran war began, to 20.4% in September. Prices excluding food and energy rose 2.6%.

Why it matters

This is the administration's closing economic argument: the Iran war is a temporary shock, and prices will come down once it ends. That's a bet on oil, two weeks before an election in which 67% of adults tell NBC that gas prices are a serious problem.

The catch

His two specific claims miss. Core prices have sped up month to month since June, and rent is up 2.8% from a year ago.

Chart
Energy pulled inflation up after the war began. Core stayed lower, but it didn't keep falling. · Axis starts at 2%

Core, month to month: speeding up (seasonally adjusted)

  • June-0.02%
  • July+0.22%
  • Aug.+0.29%
  • Sept.+0.33%

Bessent’s claims, checked

  • “This is an energy shock”Energy +20.4% in a year; gasoline +34.2%Holds up
  • “Core inflation … down for four months in a row”Three (June–Aug.), then up in Sept.Doesn’t hold up
  • “Rents are down”Rent +2.8% in a yearDoesn’t hold up
  • Prescription drugs falling−4.5% in a year“Biggest in history”: not checkedHolds up
  • Welker: gas up 44% since the war beganGasoline index +45.5% from Feb. to Sept.Holds up
DataEvery month, newest first
MonthAll itemsCore
Sep 20263.72.6
Aug 20263.42.4
Jul 20263.42.5
Jun 20263.52.6
May 20264.22.9
Apr 20263.82.8
Mar 20263.32.6
Feb 20262.42.5
Jan 20262.42.5
Dec 20252.72.6
Nov 20252.72.6
Oct 2025——
Sep 20253.03.0
Aug 20252.93.1
Jul 20252.73.1
Jun 20252.72.9
May 20252.42.8
Apr 20252.32.8
Mar 20252.42.8
Feb 20252.83.1
Jan 20253.03.3

12-month change in the consumer price index (CPI-U, not seasonally adjusted), BLS. Core excludes food and energy. BLS published no October 2025 index, so that month is blank. War start: February 2026, per NBC. The gap between the lines is mostly energy but includes food (+2.5% in a year). Monthly core changes are seasonally adjusted, our math from BLS index levels. Rent: rent of primary residence. Drugs: prescription drugs index. Gas since the war: gasoline index, Feb. to Sept. 2026, our math.

Go deeperHotter than forecast · Five-month high · Food · A year ago · His comeback
  • Hotter than forecast. Economists expected 3.6%. Core prices rose 0.3% in the month against 0.2% expected. Source: Consensus via CNBC and market posts on X, Oct. 14.
  • Five-month high. 3.7% is the highest annual rate since May's 4.2%. Source: BLS index levels, our math.
  • Food. Food prices are up 2.5% in a year. Bessent said food was below the Fed's targets. Source: BLS food index.
  • A year ago. Core inflation was 3.0% in September 2025, so today's 2.6% is lower than it was a year ago. Source: BLS core index, our math.
  • His comeback. Asked when the administration would take responsibility for the economy, Bessent said: “Well, we will own the economy.” Source: Meet the Press transcript; Mediaite.

Still open: Whether gas prices ease before Nov. 3.

The take

Bessent had a real argument: leave out energy and inflation is 2.6%, lower than a year ago. He undercut it with two claims that don't hold up, on core prices and rent. “We will own the economy,” he said. With two weeks to go, voters already think it does: NBC has Trump at 27% approval on the cost of living.

Sources Meet the Press transcript · BLS (CPI) · BLS on X · Mediaite · Seth (consensus) on X · NBC News (poll)

Quick bites

4 more stories in brief

Campaign trail

  • “A crook.” Asked whether a Democratic House should impeach Trump, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) said “Donald Trump is a crook. And he's got to go,” and called for investigations. He didn't commit to impeachment.

    Meet the Press transcript

  • Half a billion in Texas. Combined ad spending in the Texas Senate race has passed $500 million, only the second race outside a presidential contest to cross that mark, NBC said.

    Meet the Press transcript

Economy

  • Refinery blame game. Lankford blamed California refinery closures for fuel prices. Newsom's office answered that two private companies, not the state, decided to close them, and that a Texas refinery took 95,000 barrels a day of diesel capacity offline last year.

    Newsom press office on X · Meet the Press transcript

Ukraine & Russia

  • Zelensky's front-line claim. He says Ukrainian troops have retaken more ground since the start of fall than Russia has captured. It's his claim; we found no independent tally for that period.

    Zelensky on X

Corrections: none today. No photos today: we run only credited news photos, and none added information the graphics don't.